Good morning. Can you smell that? ‘Cause I sure can. It’s the sweet scent of COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMBLING AM I YELLING IT FEELS LIKE I’M YELLING BUT I DON’T CARE. Yes, the early point spreads and select win totals have been out there for a while now, but FanDuel Sportsbook (which I didn’t know existed) released the win totals and associated juice for each FBS team. Well, every team except for Rutgers because of some dumb state law.
We will save our picks for another day, but in the interests of derelicts everywhere, let’s take a look back to 2018 and a sneak peak at what’s to come in 2019.
2018 record: 11-9-2
Arizona Wildcats (Under 7.5) What I said: “Shaping up to be a season where Arizona goes as far as Khalil Tate takes them.”
What happened: Tate was dinged up, and Arizona wasn’t any good.
California Golden Bears(over 5.5) What I said: “...that schedule sets up nicely for them, and they have a legitimate shot to be 5-2 by mid-October.”
What happened: They won five of their first eight!
Colorado Buffaloes (Over 4) What I said: “Their home games are New Hampshire, UCLA, ASU, OSU, WSU and Utah. They also play Colorado State in Denver. There are four wins in there alone, aren’t there?”
What Happened: There were exactly four in there, plus a win at Nebraska.
Oregon State Beavers (Under 2.5) What I said: “The Beavs will probably start out 2-1, following an opening week curb-stomping at the hands of Urban Liar and Ohio State. After that? Welp.”
What happened: They, uh, started 1-2.
UCLA Bruins (Under 5) What I said: “...two of the first three are definite-to-possible losses (Oklahoma and Fresno State), and the final two are against USC and Stanford. See ya next year, Charles.”
What happened: Not only did they lose those first two, they lost their first five!
Utah Utes (Over 7) What I said: “I think my favorite part about Utah is all the love they get for producing so many NFL draftees, yet all that NFL talent never seems to win anything better than the Vegas Bowl.”
What happened: They still haven’t won anything better than the Vegas Bowl.
Washington State Cougars (Under 6.5) What I said: “Well, I’m not taking the Under to keep WSU’s streak alive, I’m doing it because they’ll be incredibly lucky to win six games.”
What happened: LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
Arizona State Sun Devils (Under 5) What I said: “After the opener, they face Michigan State, SDSU and Washington. I don’t think it will get much better afterward.”
What happened: They went 5-3 afterward, and got amazingly lucky with opponent injuries (Utah) and opponent late game debacles (Arizona).
Oregon Ducks(Over 8.5) What I said: “They get both Stanford and Washington at home. I think they win one of those, and that gets them to nine.”
What happened: They should have won both, which would’ve gotten them to nine. Ugh
USC Trojans (Over 8.5) What I said: “There are seven sure wins on the schedule, and the Trojans always have a wealth of talent. However, they have a crappy coach that is in charge of all that talent. Jimmys and Joes before X’s and O’s.”
What happened: At least I got the crappy coach part right?????
Washington Huskies (Over 10.5) What I said: “If they lose that opener, the total will likely come down to the Apple Cup which, lolololol. On the other hand, they could very well start the season 1-2. That almost certainly isn’t happening.”
What happened: Couldn’t beat Cal!
Stanford Cardinal (Over 8) What I said: “...here are Stanford’s win totals under David Shaw: 9, 9, 10, 7, 10, 10. You mean to tell me I can get their total at eight? Yes, please!”
What happened: Between late September and mid-November, Stanford won, uh, once. And they should’ve lost to Oregon as well.
Other winners: Boston College Eagles Over 5.5 (in which I said it was the surest play on the board), Air Force Falcons (Over 4.5), Iowa Hawkeyes(Over 7.5), Maryland Terrapins (Over 4.5), Tulane Green Wave (Over 5.5).
Other Losers: Wyoming Cowboys (Over 6.5 - if only they’d beaten the Cougs!), Kansas State Wildcats (Over 6), TCU Horned Frogs (Over 7.5), Illinois Fighting Illini (Under 3.5)
Other lame push: South Carolina Gamecocks (Over 7)
On to this season. Let’s start with the Pac-12, because of course.
- Washington: 9.5 (Over -105 / Under -115)
- Utah: 9.5 (Over +120 / Under -140) - If you’re bullish on the Utes, now’s the time to put some action on it.
- Oregon: 8.5 (Over -120 / Under +100) - If you’re bearish on the Ducks, now’s the time to put some action on it.
- WSU: 8 (Over and Under -110) - Kinda weird that the juice is equal on both sides. Once more I’ll say that I loathe totals that can push.
- ASU: 7 (Over +120 / Under -140) - The odds-makers aren’t big Herm believers.
- USC: 7 (Over and Under -110) - This may be my lock of the millennium. Which way? Stay tuned!
- Stanford: 6.5 (Over -115 / Under -105) - It’s been a long, long time since the Cardinal had a total this low.
- Arizona: 6.5 (Over -120 / Under +100) - I mean, the same total for Arizona and Stanford? Really?!
- Cal: 6 (Over +170 / Under -200) - Holy smokes, lots of value on the over!
- UCLA: 5.5 (Over -135 / Under +115) - I’m already waffling.
- Colorado: 4.5 (Over +120 / Under -140) - Colorado fired its coach, is sitting on a seven-game losing streak, and the total is...higher than last year? There are some big Laviska believers out there.
- OSU: 2 (Over -200 / Under +170) - I am quite surprised that the Under is more valuable.
So there you have it. Stay tuned for our predictions for both the Pac-12 and some others throughout the country in a separate post.
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This Week in Parenting
Team Kendall loaded up the family truckster once again and headed north to Amsterdam for a long weekend. As I said on Twitter last Wednesday, I was in no way prepared for the bikes. So. Many. Bikes. Anyway, there was a little park next to our room, and the boys were eager to check it out. There were a bunch of other kids over there, and instantly everyone was playing together.
Here’s the thing - I’m nearly certain none of the other kids spoke English. That’s what made this kinda cool for us, with the boys just showing up in a foreign city and immediately fitting in among a group of kids they’d never met. Just sitting there and watching this felt special. Goddamn I’m getting soft in my old age.
On the way out of town, we made a final stop. There are a lot of special milestones that parents witness in their children’s lives, such as first steps, first tooth, first day of school etc. Then there’s the day they help make their first Dutch clog.
Many tears were shed onto the sawdust of the clog and cheese (yes, that’s correct) factory.
Best beer I had this week: One of the stereotypical Netherlands things, besides tulips of course, is the apparently large number of windmills. I didn’t see many windmills in our time there, but one of the few I did see had a brewery in it! That made my Brouwerij ‘t IJ Columbus all the more delicious.
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Awful people strike again.
Parents Are Giving Up Custody of Their Kids to Get Need-Based College Financial Aid — ProPublica
First, parents turn over guardianship of their teenagers to a friend or relative. Then the student declares financial independence to qualify for tuition aid and scholarships.