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Pac-12 Football Odds and Picks: The Gamble-Tron, Week Seven

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The gambling gods giveth, and taketh away.

Rio De Janeiro Photo by Harvey Meston/Archive Photos/Getty Images

Hi there. Ever get the feeling that no matter what you do, there’s a Charlie Brown-like cloud following you all over the place? We here at Gamble-Tron HQ are especially fond of Mr. Brown (to the point that he’s permanently embossed on our frame), and we are absolutely certain that the gambling gods have had a laugh or 50 at our expense over the last 5-6 days. How else to explain what took place in the Cotton Bowl last Saturday, other than “somebody somewhere had it in for us”?

To recap, the Texas Longhorns were 3.5-point underdogs going into the game, and we thought that not only could they beat that spread (not cover, because underdogs can’t cover), we were pretty sure they’d win the game. So, how did things go? Welp, Bevo and the gang were up 14-0 before half the fans finished up their last bites of fried butter and found a seat. After a quarter, it was 28-7 in favor of Texas! We were on cruise control toward cashing another ticket, weren’t we?!

After the Sooners benched monumentally-overrated quarterback / ROI-sinking NIL sponsor Spencer Rattler, they closed the gap to 11. But Texas maintained arm’s length and led by a full 18(!) points with three minutes left in the 3rd quarter. The gambling gods seemed to be looking elsewhere, possibly toward Oxford, MS, and we thought we were in a good spot. But there was a lot more to come, and here’s how the next four scoring drives went: Touchdown Oklahoma, Field Goal Oklahoma, Touchdown Oklahoma, Touchdown Oklahoma. Spread: lost.

But wait! After being dormant for what seemed like months, the Longhorn offense reawakens and ties the game! Now, here’s where a gambler’s life gets tricky. Yes, we had the Longhorns +3.5, but the last thing we wanted was overtime because of the way Oklahoma’s offense had caught fire. The best thing that could happen was the Sooners drilling a game-winning kick at the gun, and that’s what Lincoln Riley was apparently thinking also! That’s the only explanation behind Riley letting the clock run down toward zero with this team sitting outside the Texas 30. All that was left was one running play, a timeout and a field goal try. The Gamble-Tron was looking great.

And then we weren’t. Not only did no defender tackle Kennedy Brooks on his run around the left side, NO DEFENDER EVEN TOUCHED HIM! ON THE LAST SCRIMMAGE PLAY OF THE GAME! This can’t have been an accident, as not even Texas is that incompetent. No, there were clearly higher powers at play here, and they were looking toward Vilnius and laughing their asses off as it was happening. You’ll never convince me otherwise. Whatever, we’re on to Cincinnati.

Why I’m a genius:

WE TAKE YOU TO THE TALLY SIGHT EXPERT PICKS YES THIS MAY BE THE PROUDEST MOMENT OF OUR LIVES OK WE ALSO HAVE A COUPLE KIDS AND A WIFE BUT STILL LOOK AT THESE TWEETS OH AND ALSO SUCK IT JERRY PALM!

One thing I noticed - my man Jude Seymour is the textbook definition of “volume shooter.”

Elsewhere, we’ve now ridden our Cougs to three weeks’ worth of wins! What will this week bring? Stay tuned! Admittedly, we kinda lucked out with the Michigan State-Rutgers over/under, because it was well on its way to breaking the 50.5 total at halftime, when the score was 21-13. We were also fortunate that Jedd Fisch used his timeouts with the game largely out of reach, which prompted Chip Kelly to try and score more, which enabled a UCLA field goal that pushed the final margin from 15 to 18. Winner!

Why I’m an idiot:

I don’t have any idea who the hell could have predicted that Texas A&M would suddenly discover a competent offense, but we certainly didn’t! And special thanks to David Shaw for being a crappy version of Kirk Ferentz and constantly punting from plus territory. Note to Shaw - your defense isn’t Iowa’s defense, so maybe trust your offense a tad more. And the further we get from USC absolutely hammering WSU, the worse it looks for the guys from Pullman. If only the Cougs had played the Trojans in LA, where USC is apparently much worse.

One more Texas thing.

Last Week: 4-4

Season Total: 51-37-2

Reader Results:

  • J.J. FeKl: 1-6
  • x99163z: 2-2
  • .:R: 5-7
  • 2-5 (time to really live on the edge and wait ‘til the 45 second mark)
  • coug2828: welp
  • cougman the II: 4-6

Stanford Cardinal (-2) at Washington State Cougars

Stanford has been all over the map this year, taking down Oregon in referee-aided fashion on one hand, and losing three games by double digits on the other. The change at quarterback has obviously brightened its outlook, but the Cardinal defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially against the rush. If Borghi and McIntosh can break some explosive runs early, it’ll open up some passing lanes for de Laura and this game could very likely turn into a shootout. Whatever happens, we’ve ridden the Cougs to three straight paydays, and we’re not about to screw with a streak.

The Pick: #GFC

California Golden Bears at Oregon Ducks (-13.5)

I don’t know if this is a nod to Oregon’s injuries, lackluster performance against Arizona or what, but the fact that this line is under two touchdowns against a pretty bad Cal team is somewhat mysterious. Seems like the odds-makers are begging the squares to take the Ducks, and that’s exactly what we’re gonna do. Gulp.

The Pick: Oregon

Arizona Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes (-5.5)

Colorado’s last three games: 30-0 loss, 35-13 loss, 37-14 loss. Now they’re supposed to win by nearly a touchdown? My god, how bad must Arizona be? Well, its best performance of the season came in a 22-point loss to Oregon, and its only decent quarterback went down against UCLA. This is definitely a sicko special! We never envisioned laying this many points with the Buffs after watching their hideous performance against Minnesota, but here we are.

The Pick: Colorado, Under 46.5

Arizona State Sun Devils at Utah Utes (PK)

Both of these teams have caught fire, but only one of them is a bunch of Cheaty McCheaterfaces. Even so, Herm and his merry band of pandemic rule breakers have really come on strong since the loss in Provo, and we have paid dearly by fading them over the last few weeks. And while Cameron Rising has taken the reins of the Utah offense and made it at least semi-competent, Jayden Daniels and his travel agent mom still have the edge in the QB matchup.

The Pick: Flaming Forks

UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies (-2)

On one hand, UCLA has a very productive running game, with its top two backs averaging north of six YPC. That’s a big edge in this game, as Washington’s run defense has been quite ugly. On the other hand, Dorian Thompson-Robinson is dinged up, and wasn’t throwing that well to begin with (at least percentage-wise). On one hand, Washington comes into this game at home, after an idle week, while UCLA is on the second half of back-to-back road games. On the other hand, Washington is still a pretty crappy team. What to do?

The Pick: Washington

Michigan State Spartans (-5) at Indiana Hoosiers

Just have a hunch that this will be a tight game.

The Pick: IU

Kentucky Wildcats at Georgia Bulldogs (-22.5)

I am way late to UGa, as they’ve been covering with ease this season, even with a lousy backup quarterback (which means this will be the kiss of death). Not sure what it says that a matchup between two unbeaten SEC East teams has a spread north of three touchdowns, but ESPN will figure out a way to spin it regardless.

The Pick: The Real Dawgs

Ole Miss Rebels at Tennessee Volunteers (Total = 82.5)

Principle play once again.

The Pick: Under

Hawaii Rainbows at Nevada Wolf Pack (-14)

Never trust Todd Graham in any spot.

The Pick: ‘Pack

Staff Picks

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