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Pac-12 Football Odds and Picks, the Gamble-Tron, Week Four

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Well, that week was something.

NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Greetings from Flight Level 350 on American Airlines Flight 71, off the east coast of Ireland, where the only thing higher than this aircraft is the state of our picks! Ok, and also probably Keith Richards but that’s neither here nor there. We’ll get to that in a few seconds, but first, I’d like to take a moment to applaud American for somehow finding a wormhole in the space-time continuum.

You’ll be stunned to learn that my flight did not depart for DFW 13 minutes before it arrived from DFW. Amazingly, it didn’t depart until after 2 p.m. I know, I’m as stunned as you are!

But I digress. Who cares about flight times when we can brag about an amazing weekend! It should tell you something about the state of Cougar Football when we are more excited about gambling results than our favorite team’s results, but here we are. Normally, the non-Pac-12 predictions save our backsides due to our poor intra-conference picks (at least it feels that way), but that was certainly not the case last week.

Why I’m a genius

I placed nine bets on Pac-12 games last week. How many times did we win?

Damn right. We’re most proud of the Fresno State spread beat and the Washington under. The former because it was based on a loss in Eugene, and the latter because we had a feeling Washington would take out some frustration, just hopefully not too much! Hoo boy was that a sweat, but she came home.

Also rode the Nittaly Lions to another win, but that was definitely a tad stressful! It was also a fun game to watch. I don’t know how good either of those teams is, but the back-and-forth nature of the game, coupled with the incredible environment made for some quality entertainment.

Why I’m an idiot

Laid three touchdowns and then some on two perennial blue bloods in Ohio State and Oklahoma, and they proceeded to (bleep) the bed, especially the Sooners. By the fourth quarter, my bet on that game was so far gone that I was actually rooting for Nebraska to beat them. And how on earth did Spencer Rattler get so much hype going into this season? He wasn’t that impressive last year, and he sure as hell isn’t this year, either.

Then there’s Michigan State. I loved their chances to win, and even said as much in last week’s column. Did I take them on the money line? Noooooo. So of course they won by three damn touchdowns.

I also got a bit greedy before hitting the sack, and it cost me a tad in the win percentage column.

In my defense, the Ole Miss game didn’t go over until just before the fourth quarter began! And luckily Boise State and Oklahoma State decided to just not play offense in the second half. I’ll take it!

Last Week: 12-4

Season Total: 30-17

Reader Results:

  • J.J. FeKl: 6-5
  • CrimsonCrusade12: 6-5
  • Jess Ann Roberts: 3-2 (plus 1-0 on the money line upset!)
  • BothwaysUphill: 6-1
  • cougman the II: 6-6

Washington State Cougars at Utah Utes (-15)

Utah isn’t very good, and has had a tumultuous week. Even so, this line has gone from 12 to 15! What does that say about the state of things in the Football Ops Building?! While WSU is dealing with a veritable cornucopia of quarterback problems, Utah isn’t far behind. Spring savior transfer Charlie Brewer got pulled so far out of last week’s game that he ended up in the transfer portal. Kids these days. Somehow, things are far better in Salt Lake than they are in Pullman, for many reasons.

The Pick: Utah Oh FFS here we go again. Time to circle the wagons and only lose by two touchdowns, boys! Cougs beat the spread, barely.

Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils (-14)

ASU sleep-walked through its first two games, then got punched in the mouth once it played Pac-12 South favorite BYU. Colorado has been more battle-tested, facing decent teams from the B1G and SEC. What have we learned from these two teams so far? Well, ASU is good at beating bad teams, and Colorado can’t score. Colorado is also a bad team, so there’s that.

The Pick: ASU

UCLA Bruins (-5.5) at Stanford Cardinal

Hoo boy, this is a tough one. Stanford is playing way, way better since its opening weekend face plant. UCLA is still pretty good, but that pass defense was exposed by Jake “Washington’s best quarterback lol good job Huskies” Haener last Saturday night. When in doubt, we’re taking the home dog.

The Pick: Stanford

Oregon State Beavers at USC Trojans (-10.5)

You won’t believe this but several folks throughout the college football mediashphere are positively drooling over Jaxson Dart. This opinion-haver thinks that while he’s probably better than the overrated Kedon Slovis, he isn’t necessarily the next Carson Palmer. Then there’s the massive caveat put forth by Bud Elliot on the Cover 3 podcast earlier this week: “Let’s not forget that Washington State is a smoking crater right now.” I want to be offended, but Bud hit the bullseye with that one. Even so, I think USC is getting a bit of a “new coach” bump, and even though the Beavs have looked ok against inferior competition, that’s a ways in the rear view.

The Pick: ESS CEE

California Golden Bears at Washington Huskies (-7.5)

Jon Wilner’s perennial darling vs. Phil Steele’s pet project. That is not a compliment to either of those carnival barkers. Cal is lousy. Washington is lousy. Neither coach cares about offense. That being the case, I’ll take the touchdown-plus.

The Pick: Cal, Under 47

Arizona Wildcats at Oregon Ducks (-28.5)

/teeth gnashing emoji

Oregon didn’t have the best injury luck in its creampuff game last weekend, but most of the guys who got dinged - including Anthony Brown - appear ready to go. I don’t think that applies to Kayvon Thibodeaux, who I’d think the coaches are being extra cautious with since they know this weekend is another layup. Why am I stressing about this one? No idea, but here we are.

The Pick: Ducks

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns (-7.5)

Your truly will be in attendance, along with the brother and dad. If you see someone at the buffet line during a crucial point in the game, that’s me. Anyway, this bad boy opened at Texas -13 and has almost been cut in half. I don’t think Texas is anything special, but they are at home and I think they’re finally playing the right quarterback. I think the sharps are hoping it gets down to 7, and then they’re gonna pounce. But what’s a hook between friends?

The Pick: Horns, Over 61

Louisville Cardinals (-1.5) at Florida State Seminoles

Louisville is coming off one of the most incredible victories of the season, while FSU got smacked around by Wake Forest. The sad part? Nobody batted an eye at Wake Forest walking all over the once-proud Seminoles! Insanity. Anyway, the Cardinals had an extra day to get past the crazy win, and we think they’ll carry the day in Tallahassee.

The Pick: The ‘Ville

Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators (-19)

I don’t think Tennessee is any good, and I love watching them lose, but don’t we think the Gators will be in the midst of a hangover after almost taking Alabama to overtime last weekend? Yes.

The Pick: Smokey (the only good thing about that team)

Liberty Flames (-5.5) at Syracuse Orangemen

I don’t like anything about Liberty, but if there’s one bedrock rule in gambling, it’s always bet on the team that God wants to cover. At least I think that’s how it goes.

The Pick: Cheap Trick’s 2nd-best song (behind Mighty Wings duh)

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Total: 46.5)

The Jack Coan and his nine operable fingers revenge special! I don’t feel safe on either side of the spread, but it’s tough to see these largely inert offenses combining for damn near seven touchdowns.

The Pick: Under

So there you have it, a lucky 13 picks, with more likely to come via Twitter once we get back from the Texas game and realize what poor decisions we made early on. I guess the good news is that if we lose ‘em all, we’re still .500?

Staff Picks