College Football Odds and Picks: The Gamble-Tron, Week Six

Hello, and happy fall! Or, if you live in a place like us, happy time of the year where it’s slightly less swampy than it normally is! If we were still in Deutschland, we’d have wrapped up our Oktoberfest celebration / hung up the lederhosen already, as half of it actually takes place in September.

Pro tip: If you ever make your way to the home of Oktoberfest, go to Stuttgart to take part in Cannstatter Volksfest (the cover photo is from there), and stay away from the Munich tourist trap. You can thank me later.

But even though we aren’t there anymore, we’re still able to take part in fall festivals that include beer. That was hammered home last week, when Gamble-Tron III said, “Hey dad, you and mom haven’t been on a date in a while.” And even though he almost certainly dropped this hint so we’d leave him to play 10 straight hours of Fortnite, he’s right, and anyone who thinks kids don’t pay attention is destined to learn some cold, hard lessons. But as coincidence would have it, the lovely wife and I are headed to where our love of beer festivals began.

Back in 2009, we decided on a whim to head out to Sandestin, FL and check out the inaugural beer festival. We were soon to move to BF New Mexico, and wanted to have a fun weekend before departing, so we loaded up our 1 year-old and headed out. And even though we had the little kiddo with us, it was great! So now that we’re back in the general vicinity, Mrs. Gamble-Tron and yours truly will be taking an overnight field trip to the beer festival, while the kids try not to kill each other back at the house.

That means that we won’t see much football this weekend, to include our beloved Cougs. But a few - very few - things are more important than football, with beer and a happy marriage occupying that small group. That said, we made no promises regarding the number of times we’ll will check the score app throughout the afternoon. So don’t be surprised if we write on Sunday about how our phone ended up on the floor of Choctawhatchee Bay.

Last Week: 8-7

Season Total: 52-34

Best Call(s) of the Weekend

Oregon State Beavers at Utah Utes (-10)

Really tough spot for the Beavs here in what, to yours truly, is the most interesting conference game of the weekend. OSU almost pulled off the Pac-12’s biggest upset of the young season. Instead, it lost in the final minutes, and now goes on the road to face an increasingly-ferocious Utah team. Could be just me, but I think we’ll reach December and be completely baffled at the fact that a mediocre Florida team beat Utah.

The Pick: Utes

As I figured, Utah pounded the quarterback-poor Beavers. It took a bit, but the Utes finally got a decent lead and then just went big brother, sitting on OSU and watching them flail.

Air Force Falcons at Navy Midshipmen (Total = 38.5)

Service. Academy. Matchup. Principle.

The Pick: Under

Your final score from Colorado Springs: Air Force: 13, Navy: 10 Never a doubt.

Tulane Green Wave at Houston Cougars

Houston is already packing it in.

The Pick: Wave (+155)

All Tulane did was lose its starting QB who was actually its backup in the first quarter, only to put the third-teamer in and still beat Houston on the road. Show me the $$$!

Worst Call of the Weekend

Lots to pick from! That includes WSU. I had the Cougs picked in the draft of last week’s column the whole time, but fell victim to fear of more Cal nonsense and switched.

Elsewhere:

Georgia Bulldogs at Missouri Tigers (+29)

#GoDawgs messed around with Kent State last weekend with Kent State in a clear lookahead situation. Not saying that Missouri is anything worth looking ahead to, but it does present a conference road game. And after what we witnessed on The Plains last weekend, I’ll go out on a limb and predict that UGa will be in death machine mode.

The Picks: Dawgs to cover and Missouri team total Under 12.5

If one massive loss is bad, two is even worser! I lost both by halftime, which is equal parts liberating and infuriating.

Houdini Act of the Weekend

LSU Tigers at Auburn Tigers (Aubie Team Total = 19.5)

The Tigers take on the Tigers for the second straight week, and the Auburn version of the Tigers still stinks on offense.

The Pick: Under

I still can’t believe this. Just over 20 minutes into the game, Auburn scored its 17th point, and led 17-0. I wrote it off as a loss. But wait! An Auburn halfback pass near the goal line - near the goal line??? - is picked off! Then an LSU DB steals a pass from an Auburn receiver. Next thing you know, the Bayou Bengals are taking a knee with a 21-17 lead and making us a winner! It’s a post-equinox miracle!

We’re on to week six.

All odds courtesy of our DraftKings partners.

Pac-12 Picks

Washington State Cougars at USC Trojans (-10)

This is currently sitting at USC -13, but it opened at 10, and we jumped with the bet that it would go further toward the home team.

Can WSU win the game? Absolutely. But it will take a near-perfect game. That means a positive turnover ratio and limiting explosive plays, especially in the USC passing game. But while WSU’s turnover ratio is well into negative territory, USC has turned the ball over once. All season. Meanwhile, USC is 8th in the nation in both yards-per-play and 3rd-down conversion rate. WSU sits at 35th and 65th in those categories. I hope I’m wrong, but I see receivers running through WSU’s depleted secondary early and often.

So of course, this week has been filled with people taking WSU, as the line has risen up toward two touchdowns, but our call is our call, and we hope it goes down in flames.

The Pick: Southern Cal

Utah Utes at UCLA Bruins (+4.5)

Biggest matchup in Pac-12 conference play so far. Almost seems like Chip Kelly was playing possum during the nonconference season, and it should have cost his team against South Alabama, but the Bruins escaped. As impressive as the Utes have been, and as much success as they’ve had in this venue - Rose Bowl excepted - I think this one will be close. In that case, give me the home dog.

The Pick: UCLA

Washington Huskies at Arizona State Sun Devils (+14)

I don’t know if ASU played pretty well last week, or if USC just messed around for most of the night. I do know that Washington looked like a bottom three team in the conference on defense against UCLA, while the Michael Penix Heisman campaign took on some serious water. I think Washington wins this game without much of a sweat, but laying two touchdowns on the road against an opponent not named Colorado doesn’t seem like the right side.

The Pick: Sparky / Over 56

Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats (+13)

Another game that opened as a 10-point spread and quickly escalated. The more I watch Oregon, the more impressed I get. But Arizona is also really good...when it’s playing Colorado. Y’all ain’t playing Colorado this week.

The Pick: Ducks / Under 70

Oregon State Beavers at Stanford Cardinal (+7)

Listen, Stanford is a bad team. Oregon State, despite two straight losses, is fairly good. Stanford returns home after playing two road games against the two best teams in the PNW, while OSU goes back on the road after traveling to Utah last week. Also fairly significant is OSU’s, let’s say, tenuous quarterback situation. Given all that, let’s take the touchdown.

The Pick: Card

Never enough for the Road

Missouri Tigers at Florida Gators (Total = 55)

Early, sleepy start in Gainesville, Anthony Richardson still banged up, Missouri coming off an clip-emptying performance against the Georgia Bulldogs. That’s a formula even I can solve.

The Pick: Under

Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers (+13.5 First Half)

Still fading Indiana to the max extent, but I’m not sure if the Wolverines will continue firing enough late in the game to cover the 22.

The Pick: Go Blue

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oklahoma State Cowboys (Total = 69.5)

These offenses are good, but they ain’t that good.

The Pick: Under

Purdue Boilermakers at Maryland Terrapins (-3)

Purdue had an impressive win at semi-fraudulent Minnesota last week, but didn’t exactly light the place on fire. Another road game awaits against the better-than-expected Terps.

The Pick: Turtles

TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas Jayhawks (+6.5)

TCU has a really good offense. TCU is also well known for murdering schools who host College GameDay. That’s good enough for us.

The Pick: Amphibians

North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes (Total = 66.5)

Yes, I know UNC can’t play a lick of defense. But Miami isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard!

The Pick: Under

That’s a lot of rooting against points. Don’t care! Here are two more!

Texas A&M Aggies Team Total = 13.5

You think Saban has mentioned a thing or two to his defense this week?

The Pick: Under

Vanderbilt Commodores Team Total = 21.5

Ole Miss has been getting things done on both sides of the ball so far, which is a marked difference from 2021, when it was all offense.

The Pick: Under

Money Line Value Play of the Week

Faded Houston last week and it paid off. This week, the third-rate Cougars are in Memphis and we think Holgo will have them playing better.

The Pick: Houston (+110)

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.