clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Pac-12 Football Odds and Picks: The Gamble-Tron, Week Four

Cats and dogs, living together!


Hello there, and welcome to week four! We’re a full quarter into the season, which means that we should have a good idea of who is good and who isn’t. As such, it makes total sense that teams like the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Duke Blue Devils, Syracuse Orangemen and Kansas Jayhawks have a combined record of

/checks notes

/rubs eyes

/checks notes two more times


Are we sure these aren’t the records heading into the Jimmy V Classic? Hell, even basketball also-ran Indiana is unbeaten! And that team stinks!

On the other end of the spectrum, teams like Boise State, Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Auburn are either not as good as we’ve come to know them, or are flat out bad.

It all adds up to a season of tumult, which doesn’t make things easy when you’re trying to predict games against the point spread. So, which of the aforementioned teams are actually pretty good? Well, believe it or not, Kansas may be the best of the bunch. The Jayhawks have gone to Morgantown and Houston in consecutive weeks and won by double digits. Syracuse is definitely improved, but probably doesn’t beat the Purdue Boilermakers without a complete implosion on behalf of the road team last weekend. And Duke is Duke. It’s better, but we’re gonna withhold most of our praise. Oh, and Rutgers is bad.

But still, 3-0 is 3-0 (thanks, Captain Obvious), and we Cougs are definitely aware of how great it is to be sitting there at this point in the season. As for the Gamble-Tron, we’re not looking too shabby either. Maybe we’ll just cash in on our .63 winning percentage and call ‘er good. lol nope

Last Week: 12-5

Season Total: 36-21

Best Call of the Weekend

Washington Huskies (-3)

Let’s see here, the 11th-ranked team from the Big Ten is facing a previously 4-8 Huskies team from the reeling Pac-12, and...the Huskies are favored? By a full field goal? This is the classic, “somebody knows something” game, and I’m siding with that somebody. Plus, Michigan State lost two key defensive players for the season in its opener. Yikes.

Sparty is the early clubhouse leader for fraud of the year, and had no business being ranked so high. Hell, Michigan State shouldn’t be ranked all. AND YET THE COACHES POLL HAS MSU 21ST AND WASHINGTON 24TH! lololol. But seriously Washington is really good.

Also jumped on a last minute dog that should have won outright, but whose coach suffered from #coachbrain down the stretch, settling for a long field goal when there was plenty of time to run another play.

Worst Call of the Weekend

Arizona State (-20)

There was a year or two there where Eastern Michigan was actually...decent? That seems long gone. There was also a time when some folks thought Herm Edwards was a clear upgrade from Todd Graham. As we learned in Varsity Blues, things change. So, which things have changed more? Well, despite the talent exodus, we’d say that ASU is at least three touchdowns better than EMU.

Yep, I swung and missed there!

What didn’t I miss on? Oh, dear reader, I did not waver when ASU won its first two games in 2018, while scores of national writers began issuing mea culpas after panning the Herm Edwards hire. Here’s what I wrote after ASU took down #15 Michigan State (Hmm, Pac-12 team beats an overrated Michigan State team and is proclaimed to be back? Never seen that before or since!)

The most bizarre story of the week isn’t that ASU took down Michigan State. It’s that there are so many “experts” already writing the “Looks like I was wrong about Herm Edwards!” column. IT’S BEEN TWO GODDAMN WEEKS SHEEPLE DID YOU EVER STOP AND THINK THAT MAYBE TODD GRAHAM LEFT SOME TALENT BEHIND AND ALSO MAYBE MICHIGAN STATE ISN’T THAT GOOD OF COURSE YOU DIDN’T. This is ASU’s dead cat bounce season.

ASU broke into the poll that week, and promptly lost to San Diego State - we were on the Aztecs +5 - never to see the rankings again that season. Herm Edwards was a terrible hire then, and it somehow looks even more disastrous now.

Gut Punch of the Weekend

Didn’t take any bad beats, for a change (all of the losses were outright ass-kickings). But dammit I loved USC all week, yet was too cowardly to pull the trigger. If that weren’t bad enough, I threw more bad money after the over, which I never ever do when a total is anywhere near 70. Dumb dee dumb dumb dummmmmb.

All odds courtesy of our incredible sponsors at DraftKings.

Pac-12 Games

2022’s first full slate of Pac-12 games, and we’re staring down F-O-U-R home dogs, all of six points or more! As Lee Corso would say, “Yo.”

Oregon Ducks at Washington State Cougars (+6)

Man, if this were a full touchdown, I’d be tempted to take WSU. Hell, I’m tempted to take the Cougs to win outright! Especially since Bo Nix is about as consistent as a meth-addled squirrel. But Oregon looked really good against a solid BYU team, and I think its blowout loss to the Georgia Bulldogs was more about UGa’s awesomeness than Oregon’s weakness.

The Pick: Oregon

UCLA Bruins at Colorado Buffaloes (+21)

UCLA should have lost to something called South Alabama last week, but the Jaguars coach decided that he was smarter than everyone else, and tried some absurd fake field goal that contributed mightily to a lost upset chance. That said, the Bruins did escape with the win, and Colorado is in the very familiar position of having possibly the worst Power Five team in the country. 2016 was truly bizarre.

The Pick: UCLA

USC Trojans at Oregon State Beavers (+5.5)

The handle on Oregon State is staggering. Yes, you read that right. Ain’t no way we’re gonna jump on board with Johnny SquarePlay here.

The Pick: Fight On! For old SC! Our men fight on, then leave after ‘23! / Under 70.5

Utah Utes at Arizona State Sun Devils (+14.5)

I’d actually be more confident in picking Utah if Herm Edwards were coaching ASU, but alas it’s an interim guy. But unless that interim guy is Vince Lombardi or Don Shula, I’m confident in the Utes dominating this one.

The Pick: Utah

Stanford Cardinal at Washington Huskies (-12.5)

I was never a fan of Bert Griffin and the b.s. he pulled as a player, but he’s a pretty good analyst. Or maybe it’s because he’s paired with Mark Jones, and thus will always sound like a genius by comparison. However, he did mention “Big Penix Energy” last weekend, and I thought it was a solid line. Expect more big Penix this weekend, because Washington apparently never has to play a road game.

The Pick: #GoDawgs (which comes with a Georgia logo which pisses off Washington fans which is hilarious)

Arizona Wildcats at California Golden Bears (-3.5)

Very underrated crazy series of late. As bad as Arizona has been over the last handful of seasons, it has a six game winning streak over Cal. Every one of those six games has been decided by seven points or fewer. Arizona is coming off a big win (if such a thing can exist when you beat an FCS team), while Cal has to be kicking itself for not coming out of South Bend with a victory. We Cougs know how that feels. In any case, I’ll take those points.

The Pick: Fightin’ de Lauras

Way Too Many for the Road

I will not make a Friday play. I will not make a Friday play. I will not make a anyway, the Virginia Cavaliers are mysteriously poor on offense this season, despite the presence of quarterback Brennan Armstrong. Now the Cavs head to what used to be called the Carrier Dome. We think the poor offensive performance continues.

The Pick: Virginia Team Total Under 21.5

I don’t know what’s going on at one site that isn’t DraftKings, but they published this line on Sunday and let’s just say I may or not have taken out a second mortgage. Congratulations to the Florida Gators on the road win.

Speaking of that game, Emory Jones is nicked up, and has yet to throw a touchdown pass this season. That’s right, the guy who was drawing Cam Newton / Vince Young comparisons two weeks ago isn’t exactly lighting things up. Florida will try to keep its foot on the brake, while Tennessee is gonna try and go plaid. (look it up, kids)

The Pick: Under 31.5 first half

Maryland Terrapins at Michigan Wolverines (-16.5)

Michigan is really good. Problem is, nobody really knows that because it’s played three cadavers. And what of Maryland? Well, the leatherbacks are really good at beating bad or decent teams. They’re really bad at competing with the top teams in the conference. I probably don’t need to tell you where Michigan stratifies.

The Pick: Maize n Blue

Clemson Tigers at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+7)

The last time Wake beat Clemson, Tommy Bowden was coaching. Dabo Swinney has never lost to the Deacs, and only one of his 13 straight wins was by one score. Yeah, Clemson’s offense is smelly as hell. And yeah, Wake has Sam Hartman back. But Clemson’s defensive linemen ain’t here for your long mesh, Dave Clawson.

The Pick: IPTAY

Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones (Total = 45.5)

Tight games equals tight coaches. Tight coaches equal conservative play calling.

The Pick: Under

Missouri Tigers at Auburn Tigers (Total = 51.5)

T.J. Finley is hurt, and isn’t anything special anyway. Missouri can’t score. Even an idiot history major like me can do this math.

The Pick: Under

Happy Gambling. Let’s be careful out there.

Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See for details.

Staff Picks