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Pac-12 Football Odds and Picks: The Gamble-Tron, Week 11

The end is arriving rather quickly!

Autumn in Oldenburg Photo by Hauke-Christian Dittrich/picture alliance via Getty Images

Welcome back to your one-stop get rich scheme! If you’ve been putting actual money on our picks, you’re a happy person! Well, ok, unless you’re a Cougar fan, but I digress. The weather may be (gloriously) getting cooler, but we’re going in the opposite direction. We’ve had two stellar weeks in the last three, and we’re not here to bore you any more. So let’s just get to the picks.

No matter what happens, we’ll still have a winning record after this week. Related: Expect a thorough breakdown next week titled, “I never thought it was possible to go 0-17.”

Last Week: 12-4-1

Season Total: 87-67-2 (SHOULD PROBABLY QUIT NOW!)

Best Call(s) of the Week

Well, seeing as how WSU and Stanford both tried to imitate Iowa, that under 60.5 throw-in was lock city. And for the life of me, I can’t figure out what took everyone so long to realize Arizona is good! Get rid of the knucklehead QB and good things happen. Jedd Fisch for coach of the year! Except wait, why hasn’t this guy been playing all along? Anybody gonna ask Jedd for a comment?

Worst Call(s) of the Week

I am such a square. It was obvious that as soon as Notre Dame opened -1, something was amiss. Clemson was in shambles. Notre Dame was playing fairly well. The smart gambler would have seen that line and thought, “classic example of the odds-makers knowing something.” The stupid gambler saw that line and thought, ONLY ONE POINT THIS IS EASY MONEY LOAD IT UP AND FIRE!!!” Guess which one I am.

Oh, and we picked the unbeaten Air F(a)rce Academy Falcons to beat an Army team that had one FBS win to its name AND HAD JUST LOST TO UMASS by 18 points. The final margin was 20 points, except that Army won. I guess that’s why those casinos are so big and bright.

Pill Kick of the Week

Oregon State thoroughly dominated Colorado, to the point that it had a rushing edge of 195 to -7. There’s no questions that Jonathan Smith has worked wonders in Corvallis, which makes his galactic brain farts all the more baffling. OSU takes a 23-10 lead, PAT pending. But then a Colorado flag moves the ball to the 1, at which point, Smith calls...a pass play? Colorado plays defense for a change, and ends up scoring two points. So instead of covering, we were now on the wrong side of the number. WHY JONNY WHY. But wait, OSU scores again! We may do this after all! Oh no. Of course not. OSU goes prevent, and Colorado marches 75 yards to get inside the spread in garbage time. Kill me now.

Opening Line Calls

WSU is still a favorite. What on earth? That didn’t last long, as the Cougs are 2-2.5 point dogs everywhere. We thought the Michigan line would climb a bit, but it’s fallen slightly. Good value on the others, though, as Georgia Tech is now catching about 14 and Air Force’s spread has risen to 19.

Pac-12 Picks

WSU at Cal (-2)

Glad we jumped on the Bears when they were getting points!

The Pick: You already know / Under 59.5

Arizona at Colorado (+10.5)

I really like Arizona here, mostly because it’s been a juggernaut against the number this season. But I do think that the odds-makers are starting to catch on, and the hook, plus Colorado’s tendency to kick in back doors has me on the home team.

The Pick: Coach mid-afternoon on Pac-12 Networks

Utah at Washington (-9.5)

Tough one here. Utah has traditionally played well enough to beat Washington, only to have its coach sabotage everything down the stretch with dumb decisions. As for Washington, it’s played poorly enough to lose its last three games, but for one reason (awful officiating) or another (a dropped pass), is still unbeaten. I think it will stay unbeaten, but it will once again not be easy.

The Pick: Utah

Oregon State at Stanford (+20.5)

This may very well be the toughest call of the weekend. The Beavs are at least four touchdowns better than the second-worst team in the Pac-12. And Stanford hasn’t won at home all season. However, OSU is in a gigantic look-ahead spot here, with Washington coming to town next weekend. Feels like a 31-10 or 34-13 situation, with OSU grinding the clock.

The Picks: OSU / Under 53.5

Arizona State at UCLA (-17)

ASU is turrible. UCLA isn’t very good, but shouldn’t have a lot of trouble here. If it does, hoo boy, that’s a really bad sign!

The Pick: UCLA

USC at Oregon (-14.5)

I’d love to know what this line would have been before the season began. Definitely not more than Oregon -3. I suspect USC would have actually been the favorite. But that was then, and USC is a complete embarrassment on defense. And yet, if it wins this game, it’s still alive in the conference title race! It will not, however, win this game.

The Picks: Oregon / Under 76.5

Other Games of Note

Georgia -6.5 (first half)

Michigan at Penn State Under 45.5

Minnesota at Purdue Under 48

Northwestern at Wisconsin Under 43