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Pac-12 Football Odds and Picks: The Gamble-Tron, Week Five

Finally a whiff of success!

Anti Idling Sign In London photo by Mike Kemp/In Pictures via Getty Images

Happy Friday! Which means we’re already behind schedule!

You may be aware that your Washington State Cougars football team which is unbeaten this season and is also #16 in the national AP rankings does not have a game this week. No, the Cougars are not on a bye. A bye is something you earn for a tournament or playoff.

The Cougs are, however, idle. We’re kinda bummed about that for a couple reasons. First, they’re hot! Second, we wish the extra rest was coming later in the season when the nicks and bruises are a bit more stacked up. Eight straight weeks of games to close the season is a bit of a tall ask for a program like WSU, who always operates at razor thin depth margins.

But the Gamble-Tron is not ready to sit idle! We’re coming off our best weekend of the season! We have to try and establish some momentum, so that’s exactly what we’re probably not going to do.

Last Week: 11-6 (hooray!

Season Total: 33-32 (finally not a total loser!)

Best Call of the Week

Not only did we like Oregon to win big, we liked Oregon to get up big and maintain a huge lead. How did we see this coming? Well, Colorado isn’t as good as its 3-0 record suggested, and it was rather obvious that Dan Lanning wanted to absolutely put one on Deion Sanders. That’s why we doubled up on the first half line and the game line. Glad we didn’t take the over! Another good non-call!

Worst Call(s) of the Week

I mean I picked against the team in Pullman that led for more than 59 minutes. #Dumbass

Every time I see USC laying a huge number on the road, my first instinct is “no way they cover that.” Then, like the salmon of Capistrano, I come right back to my old habit of laying the points anyway. What a complete idiot.

Life in the Sicko Zone

We made three certified sicko plays last week, and every one of them came through! But man oh man was there a serious case of the sweats as each of those games went down the stretch. To wit:

  • App State at Wyoming Under 44.5 - App State absolutely dominated this game, but despite doubling Wyoming in yardage, despite getting 27 first downs to Wyoming’s seven, and despite leading 19-7 in the fourth quarter, App State somehow found itself down 22-19 with a minute left. But the Mountaineers made it all the way to the Wyoming 20 with 17 seconds to go, needing just a field goal to tie the game and ruin my bet. INTERCEPTED!!!! Pokes win 22-19!!

But for real you watch the highlights. App State has to be sick about that game.

  • We took a flier on Los Lobos getting more than a field goal at UMass, figuring that Vegas was still shaping lines off the opening win in Las Cruces. So it was looking quite well when UNM led 14-0, then 28-14. But noooooo. UMass stormed back to tie with 50 seconds left, forcing overtime. Luckily the Minutemen kicked a field goal, and the only thing I needed was NOT A FIELD GOAL, which would’ve forced another OT and put the spread at risk again. Touchdown Lobos! Winner!
  • Still don’t know why we snagged the Tennessee-UTSA Under 60.5 at the last second, but I guess it was because we didn’t have enough stress Saturday. And when Tennessee took a 45-14 lead with 10 minutes left, there was almost no chance we’d be able to nurse this one home. It was then that the gods intervened. A UTSA drive ends in turnover on downs, and Tennessee’s backup go three-and-out. After the punt, UTSA fumbles at its own 41. Oh no.

But the Roadrunners are not going to roll over and die on the Cumberland Gap! No sir! They force another three-and out and no we only need to drain two minutes! Several runs and one first down later, we had done it.

There’s no way the gambling gods will let that run of luck go unpunished.

Pac-12 Picks

Utah at Oregon State (-3.5)

Friday night Pac-12 action! And it’s a great matchup!

Man, the odds-makers sure respect the Beavers, despite their defense giving up a million yards last Saturday in Pullman. Utah is good, but Utah ain’t WSU on offense, and I think OSU bounces back.

The Pick: Beavs / Under 44

USC (21.5) at Colorado

How wild is this Colorado team? In four of its five games now, it’s either been a 21+ point favorite or a 21+ point underdog. Sheesh! As far as this week, I want to believe that USC was in a look ahead spot when it sleepwalked through Tempe last weekend. Do I actually believe it? Not really! But I want to!

The Pick: USC / Under 73.5 (#principleplay)

Arizona State at Cal (-13)

If you’d watched ASU and Cal play last weekend, there isn’t one thing that would make you think Cal is nearly two touchdowns better. So, what gives? This is a stinky line. I mean, like, April in accounting heating her week-old salmon in the office microwave stinky.

The Pick: ASU

Oregon at Stanford (-26.5)

The Cardinal may have let their best shot at a Pac-12 win slip away, as they led Arizona by a field goal midway through the fourth quarter and were facing Arizona’s backup quarterback. Oregon has a few notable rough patches in Palo Alto, so am I really gonna lay nearly four touchdowns? On a road team? Yes. Yes I am.

The Pick: Oregon / Under 60.5

Washington (-17.5) at Arizona

Another week, another “Washington minus anything until proven otherwise” situation.

The Pick: Washington

Other Games of Note

Notre Dame at Duke Total = 53

Tough game for the Irish last week. Notre Dame should have beaten Ohio State. Instead, the Irish lost in crippling fashion. Now they head to Duke. In case you didn’t know, Notre Dame has absolutely owned ACC teams since it entered into the scheduling agreement.

The Picks: Irish -5 / Under 53

LSU (-2.5) at Ole Miss

Something seems off with the Rebels.

The Pick: Tigahs

Alabama at Mississippi State Total = 46.5

We absolutely do not trust either of these teams to score 24 points.

The Pick: Under

Sicko Plays of the Week

James Madison (-1)

Michigan State at Iowa Under 36.5